ChaosScenario

The Amazing Color-Changing Card Trick

When dealing with a complicated topic, we ought to resist the temptation to accept the words and assurances of the experts uncritically, just because they know more than we do. Humans are fallible, and we are all blinded by our biases, whether we realize it or not. And that applies to experts, as well.

This was on my mind as I was lurking over at the IxDA forum, when I came across a neat discussion about eye-tracking studies. You can read it if you want, but before you do, watch and reflect on this video.

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How did you do?

The purpose in bringing this up amidst a discussion about eye tracking studies was to point out that such studies show retinal focus, but not whether something the eye was focused on was comprehended on a cognitive level.

Behavior principle #1:
Just because someone sees and focuses on something, doesn't mean he assigns to it the meaning the creators intended that person to assign to it, or draw all of the conclusions that could have possibly been drawn from it.

Just as the eye can focus on something without comprehending, though, the brain can comprehend something that the eye doesn't focus on.

Behavior principle #2
Something a person does not focus on can still be comprehended at some level.

This partially explains why contextual ads perform 2.5 times better when shown in conjunction with display ads, even though display ads aren't generally seen (according to eye-tracking studies).

Still, drawing parallels between video and reading comprehension as they pertain to how the eye focuses is problematic from several standpoints.

1. The web pages studied through eye-tracking are typically static in time, whereas videos move.
2. Watching a video also requires use of senses other than eyesight.
3. In this particular case, the intent was in fact to trick the user, whereas web pages affected greatest by the inferences drawn from eye-tracking studies exist to enlighten and inform.

Watch the video again, now that you know what you're supposed to be looking for, and you'll pick up on all the subtle changes that were happening throughout, which you missed the first time.

As for me, I figured out pretty early that the camera angles made it impossible to tell if the trick was on the level, but I was so concerned about that -- about "catching" the illusionist in the trick he said he was showing the audience -- I missed all the other changes that happened.

If we assume my experience was the norm, this actually strengthens the case for the validity of the conclusions experts have been drawing from eye tracking studies.

Behavior principle #3
When looking for something specific, people typically stop looking and thinking about anything else once they feel they have found what they're looking for.

Eye-tracking studies also tell us a lot about general user reading behavior on websites, which can be confirmed through usability studies. However, usability studies can be conducted less expensively, which relegates eye-tracking studies to the realm of academic and professional (nonpaying) research.

Since we would usually use the less expensive methods, we must rely on the words of the experts like Jakob Nielsen, who make it their business to conduct these and other studies and interpret the results.

Unfortunately, doing so uncritically also puts us at their mercy, which is why we should look at all studies performed, even by "experts," with a healthy degree of skepticism. - Cam Beck

Hat tip to Mike Bennett for the video link.

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Fencing In or Building Up: A Tale of Two Strategies

Just as excited techies spread rumors that Apple will offer movie rentals through iTunes for several studios, Wal-Mart announced an end to its movie-download service.

Apple Builds Up
Apple has been working its angle for awhile, but studios have resisted because they worried about their ability to control how their movies get distributed, and at what price.

Details are sketchy at this point since the notoriously secretive Apple has not authorized anyone to speak about it publicly, but there is no indication that these same studios will make the movies available to purchase, or to burn to a playable DVD.

Apparently they are still heavily influenced by their compulsion to control the minute details of consumption, placing barriers in the way for those who either don't have an iPod or who don't want to watch a movie on their computers. Of course, consumers could always buy an Apple TV for about $300, which I'm sure would make Apple very happy.

That's a big commitment to demand of consumers to use a service. Yet, with 30 million iPods sold to date (many of them having the ability to watch movies and, with the right cables, play them on a TV), the existing market, it seems, is large enough to justify the risk, irrespective of how slowly their policies will allow the market to grow.

Wal-Mart Fences In
Wal-Mart, on the other hand,  had to shut down its movie-download service when HP discontinued its video-download only merchant product. It's been a few months since I checked, but this service was never available for Macs, whose tech-friendly owners already familiar with downloading media, though largely loyal to Apple, may have been enticed to use the service, if it did more, better, than iTunes did. 

Wal-Mart's decision to fence in isn't necessarily wrong, because this type of service doesn't reflect their strength as it stands now.

If they truly want to go after this market, though, their best bet would probably be to start building some in-house intellectual property that they could use independently of third-party software vendors who hold animus towards a category of users who would be open to using the service.

Having defined itself as a software company, Apple has positioned itself to adapt to a changing environment. Whereas had they relied on someone else to provide the service for them, like Wal-Mart did, they would have been subject to their whims.

Neither dead nor thriving
Movie download services still have a long way to go before they can gain widespread traction, but in spite of the difficulty in getting the expertise and commitment to handle the creation and maintenance of such a service in-house, the main obstacle seems to be the studios themselves.

Fearing widespread copyright violations, studios demand they be allowed to exert excessive control over how and when people consume their media, which is the wrong approach.

The best way to deal with pirating threats is to make it easier to distribute and consume the media lawfully than to exert the effort it would take to use the media unlawfully. They are never going to  control all piracy. And their efforts to do so are just ticking off the people who have no desire to do so. - Cam Beck

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Moving Mountains in 2008

Of all the things in which I was a participant in 2007, besides raising my kids and being a husband to my wife, the most rewarding was being involved in the creation of the collaborative work, The Age of Conversation, spearheaded by Drew and Gavin, which to date has raised over $11,000 for the children's charity, Variety's Lifeline.

David Reich says:

Lifeline's sole mission is providing medical assistance to children with treatable and survivable heart conditions in countries where the appropriate medical facilities, expertise or resources do not exist. Its primary focus continues to be pediatric cardiac surgeries, but is also involved in pediatric neurosurgeries, cranial-facial procedures, tuberculosis, neo-natal clinics, pediatric rehabilitative medicine and plastic surgeries for children all around the world.

Many good things could have come out of this project. The writers may have made an impact on the perspectives of influential people, which could have a positive impact on how they do business, and therefore benefit the economy as a whole.

In spite of this grand design motivated by nothing but the invisible hand, the greatest thing that could have happened to this project was that we have success in raising money, since that success provides tangible evidence that can we can, in fact, make a difference, if we set our minds and hearts to it.

$11,000 isn't enough to make a dent in the needs of the world, but the inspiration borne from it may. Christ said to his disciples, "...I tell you the truth, if you have faith as small as a mustard seed, you can say to this mountain, 'Move from here to there' and it will move. Nothing will be impossible for you." (Matt 17:20 [abbr.], NIV).

Just so. If a select group of bloggers raised that much for charity in 2007 with no idea if it could be done, what mountains do you think we can move in 2008, now that we know we can do it? - Cam Beck

It's a Wonderful (Agency) Life

Merry Christmas! - Cam Beck

Hat tip to Spin Thicket for the video link.

eBook of the Week: Money for Nothing

Most blog-aware marketers already read Seth's blog, so you don't need me to tell you that Seth released a new eBook called "Money for Nothing (and your clicks for free)" (PDF) that explains how to attract and retain visitors to your website.

This book isn't really groundbreaking, and it reads like one big advertisement for Squidoo. But because 1) I like Squidoo, and 2) I like Seth, I'll go ahead and plug the book anyway.

As is often the case, Seth is very good at communicating something you feel you already know so clearly that he makes you wish you were as good as he is at communicating it.

Seth says there are three keys to attracting traffic. He calls them "The three U's."

1. Useful
2. Updated
3. Unique

Like I said - Nothing groundbreaking... But he also hits on an important point near the end when he says,

Most people online are trying to solve a problem. They want to know something or find something or buy something. They want to meet someone or learn something. A useful lens solves their problem. It gives them a sense of meaning, helps them understand what’s what.

Note what they're not doing. They're not online to solve your problems. They have no desire to just "figure out" a difficult interface. It's your job to make the interface easy. As Jakob Nielsen says, most users are "selfish, lazy, and ruthless." They are not sympathetic to the behind-the-scenes backfighting that kept you from delivering. They care about the result.

It is the result, not the intent, that builds or destroys your brand. - Cam Beck

Doing The Most Good part 2

Cam has added an extra incentive for bloggers to participate in the Salvation Army Red Kettle campaign. For the next five bloggers that set up their campaign, he'll create a graphic with you ringing the red kettle, much like the one he created for me.

Once you've set up the campaign, contact us at chaosscenario@yahoo.com with an image with your face and we'll get to work. Alternatively, if you'd like to take this image and fark it "manipulate it in order to produce a humorous reaction" feel free. As an added incentive, we'll post links blogs, web sites, etc. that include a Red Kettle campaign.

Thanks Cam. Start ringing!!

- Paul Herring

My favorite client -- Doing The Most Good

Your not always able to pick who you work for, especially at an agency. I've been fortunate in that, for the most part, I've enjoyed just about all the clients that I've had over the years. There is one client, however, that stands out among the rest.

While I worked at Click Here, I had the great fortune to work for the Salvation Army. Everyone knows who the Salvation Army is by the ringing bells. What I don't think that people know is the type of work that the Salvation Army does.

The Salvation Army provides Emergency Assistance during disaster such as Katrina. I know this from personal experience. In 1979, I was in Wichita Falls when a tornado came through the city pretty much leveling it. It destroyed our car, all forms of communication and we had no place for our family and my two elderly grandparents to stay. The Salvation Army was the first on the scene, providing a place for us to be as well as helping us make contact with our extended family.

During Christmas, the Salvation Army provides necessities and gifts to people in need. They provide meals and gifts to children of inmates, who in some cases, may never receive a gift at this time. This particularly hits home for me as I see our own Christmas tree so full of gifts you can barely walk by it without tripping.

Internationally, the Salvation Army fight Human Trafficking. They do this not only through advocacy programs that inform and attempt to get people to take action, but also through services provided to those who are victims of this modern day slavery.

I could go on and on about what the Salvation Army does. You can find out more about their mission and cause on their website. What the Salvation Army needs, however, is not accolades for the type of work they do but help doing the work. That's why I'm starting a Red Kettle, online. I'm going to try to raise $250 for the Salvation Army by "ringing the bell" on ChaosScenario.

I'd love for readers to donate, but it doesn't have to be money. Volunteer time by ringing a bell, working in a kitchen. You can find a local place to volunteer by going to the Salvation Army site, typing in your zip code and finding your local Salvation Army center.

For those of you with your own blogs, rather than donating, I'll challenge you to set up your own Red Kettle on your blog and get your readers to get involved.

Help us help the Salvation Army in it's mission to Do The Most Good. - Paul Herring

Less is More

Last night my wife and I went to go see I Am Legend.  Now, I know what you're thinking, "Wow, John, last night was Monday, you must be living in the fast lane to go see a movie outside of Friday or Saturday." To which I reply, "I know, faithful reader, I know."

I think I started seeing trailers for the movie back in the summer and it quickly raised my intrigue.  I'm a sucker for mass chaos, military strikes and fear of the unknown, so this movie had three check marks in my book.  I think the main reason that I wanted to see the film was that the trailer gave me enough that I really wanted more. Take a look for yourself.

What  Warner Bros does really well is that they don't play their cards until you actually see the movie.  Less is actually more in that they don't let you see what is keeping Will Smith company in the trailer.  This tactic reminds me of the Microsoft iPod packaging spoof that reminds all of us that white space is not always a bad thing.  In fact, it can often help your product stand out and break through the clutter. - John Herrington

*For those of you wondering, I Am Legend is outstanding and worth the money to see it in a theater.

What if Your Audience Members are Bozos?

From Jakob Nielsen's Alertbox for December 17, 2007 ("Web 2.0 Can Be Dangerous"):

In contrast, on the Web, most people are bozos and not worth listening to.

This seems very strange, since Nielsen relies on a bunch of bozos to tell him what they think does or doesn't work on a website, which he then reports to us as the criteria suggesting what we should and shouldn't do. Is he saying that now we should not listen to him, since he relies on the ability of people who are not worth listening to?

Of course not...and for several reasons.

1. The recruiting process for usability testing is generally designed to weed out people whose ability falls below the median.
2. In this passage, Nielsen uses a generalization in language to represent a specific instance. A mistake in logic that might cause others to confuse him for Ebenezer Scrooge. Users? Humbug! This could be caused by the fact that English isn't Nielsen's native language. Or he could just be an ass. I'm not sure.

I disagree with the sentiment that "most people are bozos" entirely. We all have our strengths and weaknesses -- some are more visible and more important than others. I, for instance, am almost entirely useless on pop culture trivia, which is a weakness for me since part of my job entails understanding what other people do with their time (spent, often enough to be important, consuming pop culture). Understanding this is a limitation makes it easy to know I must listen and observe with an open mind when performing user research. (See Jim Stroup's excellent series on Socratic Genius and Ignorance to further explore the limitations of expertise and knowledge).

Context is King
Nielsen's purpose in the above passage was to contrast the quality of user reviews between members of a company and the general public, but he makes the perfectly valid point that in cases where user-generated reviews are scarce or slow in coming, employee-generated reviews in an intranet are likely to be more reliable.

Your Audience is Your Lifeblood
The greater point, though, is that if one thinks so poorly of the audience he seeks to attract, he may not be equipped to serve them well. - Cam Beck

Addendum: David Armano gives his take on usability's role in people-centered design. It's a worthwhile read and I highly recommend it.

Have a Politically Correct Season of Nondenominational Origin

I don't envy the position of companies these days that have to navigate through the murky waters of political correctness around Christmas. For a long time, it was perfectly acceptable to wish a community "Merry Christmas" with the understanding that the greeting spoke to the vast majority of that community, but not everyone. Those to whom the greeting did not apply simply smiled politely, knowing that no ill will was intended.

Somewhere along the line, though, and not without well-intended reason, companies got the idea that the familiar greeting might be offensive to those who were not Christians, so they in many cases replaced "Christmas" with "Holiday" and hoped that would be sufficient to be as unoffensive as possible. "Christmas parties" became "holiday parties," and in some places, "Christmas trees" were even supplanted by "holiday trees." (WND.com image is from 2005, and interestingly, the Spanish translation uses "Christmas.")

But something happened.

A lot of people who celebrate Christmas began to see their traditions as being under assault. And to be fair, it wasn't just the corporations, but also government, as courts started to declare, out of the blue, certain contexts of nativity displays in or near public places "unconstitutional." Corporations that simply took note of these trends and tried to adapt to them didn't anticipate the antagonistic reaction they would get by these people who wanted the warmth and nostalgia that Christmastime has always brought to them.

That's the danger of making it your goal, instead of to please as many as possible, to offend no one.

It's a losing battle, for the human psyche is so diverse and complex, and social norms so fluid (Remember, there were times "high society" thought it perfectly fine to hold slaves and send gladiators and Christians to battle or be slaughtered in competition, for the entertainment of the masses), there is nothing that someone can't find reason to be offended by, if he is predisposed to take offense.

Better to know the difference between right and wrong yourself, to be able to objectively justify your actions than to stick your finger in the air and let the prevailing legal climate tell you how you should behave.

If that means you should say, "Merry Christmas," then so be it.

If your convictions lead you to "Happy Holidays" or "Happy Hanukkah," then that is what you should say.

Go ahead. I won't take offense. 

The only ones who by chance do not offend are those who have no discernible convictions that they can justify through thoughtful and objective reason, and that is more dangerous to the long-term health of your company than making your impossible goal to offend no one.

My general greeting to America is "Merry Christmas," and to those who do not share my faith, I still welcome you in friendship that we may pursue together the many convictions and goals we have in common. - Cam Beck