How to Make Political Predictions This Election Season

Trying to woo younger voters, John McCain changed his name to J-Mack and picked as his running mate Sarah Palin, the spunky 44 year-old governor of Alaska. This came as a shock to most members of the media (and those who believe their political analyses), who figured the Republican would pick a liberal, a moderate like himself, or someone who conveniently pretended to be conservative for his own presidential run.

This move didn't surprise everyone, however. The day before the pick, I had to suffer through Barack Obama's acceptance speech in order to provide an analysis for CK and the Daily Fix. While writing editing my contribution, Paul McEnany and I tweeted up a conversation about who the Republican formerly known as McCain would pick on August 29.

A little backstory - Paul, Erin  Middleton and I had lunch at Genghis Grill awhile back... back when Hillary Clinton had a big lead in the polls and fundraising. I said then that Barack Obama would win the Democratic nomination, not Hillary.

This officially makes me 2 for 2 in political predictions this season.*

So how did I guess it? Well, of the names that had been floated, this is the only one that gave J-Mack a shot. The rest were either too boring, too liberal, or both.

J-Mack needed desperately to do three things:

1. Inject energy and hope into his campaign,
2. Reinforce his maverick credentials, but only
3. While shoring up his conservative base 

Why?

J-Mack established his darling "maverick" status among the (90% Democratic) media by voting against his own party. This was evident in a few particular areas that caused his party to be less than thrilled that he ended up being the nominee from a crowded field of less-than-exciting candidates.

Among the issues that angered the Republican Party's base, the Senator from Arizona sponsored, voted for, and/or spoke in favor of:

1. Campaign finance reform that limits free speech.
2. Comprehensive immigration reform that had, at its centerpiece, pardons for those who illegally came into or stayed into the U.S. against the will of the people as expressed in their laws.
3. Shutting down the prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to gain favor in world opinion.

Besides voting against President Bush's proposed tax cuts, it also didn't help McCain allegedly considered accepting an offer to be Democrat Sen. John Kerry's running mate in 2004, a move that even Joseph Biden (Obama's current running mate) endorsed at the time.

In addition, in the last 8 years, J-Mack has repeatedly thumbed his nose at conservatives and Christians, the activists who dominate Republican politics.

It was so bad that Focus on the Family founder and leading Christian activist, psychologist James Dobson openly wondered if he would even be able to cast a vote for President, if McCain became the nominee.

The media loved McCain for it, of course, but this put him on shaky footing moving toward the nominating convention.

Now even James Dobson is changing his tune.

I wouldn't have guessed he'd pick Palin had the name not surfaced a few weeks ago. I had heard of a Republican governor trying to weed out corruption in her home state (including among Republicans), and of course I considered this a good thing, but with the exception of former actors, I don't make a habit of memorizing the names of governors of other states.

The base of the Republican Party has been yearning for a young, incorruptible leader. Someone who is not wishy-washy but who could also appeal to the masses.

In Palin, J-Mack selected someone indisputably more conservative than him, but who, like McCain is unafraid to vote against her own party (Though she typically attacks it from the right, while McCain attacks it from the left).

If Palin acquits herself well in this election, and if she has the desire, win or lose in November, she may have the support she needs to become the person to lead the Party well into the future. That is motivating enough for many to get off of their hands and jump into the fight.

But what does this all mean? How do you duplicate this phenomenal success in making political predictions?

Easy.

Candidates of the two major parties will always act in what they believe to be their best interests. Even if they have noble intentions for the country while running, they cannot govern if they lose the election. So it makes no sense for a candidate to sabotage his own chances by doing what the media and other people who have no desire for him to win want him to do.

The candidates need the support and excitement of their party faithful. They know they cannot win an election on the strength of their ideas alone -- or even in their ability to communicate it. They need to motivate someone else to do the grunt work for them, for even though we can read all a candidate has to say about a subject, our friends have more influence over us than the candidates we never met and probably never will meet. 

• These are the same people who work the phone banks until after the sun has set.
• These are the same people who stay up late at night to read and write the planks of their party's platform.
• These people talk to their friends about how excited they are.
• They ensure nobody cheats at the polling places.

Just picking a conservative wouldn't have been enough. Because he didn't just need to placate conservatives, he needed to motivate them and give pause to those who would vote for his opponent on more superficial grounds.

What is true of electioneering is also true of marketing.
Do you want to accurately predict your own success?

Then start by delighting your customers.

They will be better advocates for you than even the snazziest suits or the cleverest of advertising campaigns. They will do for you what a microsite never could, but only if you pay attention to their needs and their worries first.

That way, you, too can pretend you're a prognosticating genius  when all you were doing was following decisions according to their logical paths. - Cam Beck

*Full disclosure: I never predicted who would win the Republican nomination -- I just didn't know -- but I underestimated the confusion the lackluster field would cause. Because of the difficulties I listed earlier, I (unofficially) predicted that McCain would drop out of it. So really, I'm a respectable but unremarkable 2/3 this season.

Comments

[Alan Wolk (The Toad Stool)]

Up until the last sentence there, I was going to ask you for Lotto numbers ;)

How do you think the whole pregnant teenage daughter thing will play out? Could either endear her more to the people you mention (since it humanizes her) or make even them skeptical of her ability to govern.

I'm thinking it could go either way and a lot will depend on her speech at the convention and then her performance in the debate.

Interesting too that her candidacy seems to have re-opened the Mommy Wars about working moms and scrambled up who is in favor of what.

[Polar Bear]

I believe Governor Sarah Palin is made up of more grit than what most of the media will give her credit for. If she had the stomach to stand up to her own party and still come out of it all with the 80% approval rating in her own state, imagine what she can do with a country full of disaffected people who are sick and tired of the "business-as-usual" politics inside the beltway. Perhaps we've seen enough movies and sitcoms that Hollywood has given us to believe that maybe "Pollyanna" CAN make a difference and change whatever it is that most of us want changed. Most pundits will not put their money where their mouth is and make a solid prediction. Well, here it comes (and, Cam, you can ask Mom to verify this): Privately, I predicted several weeks ago that Governor Palin would and should be the VP nominee. Further, I predict that she will indeed energize enough Americans to elect the McCain/Palin ticket!

[Cam Beck]

Alan - The situation with her daughter seem to be very difficult ground to stage a fight for the Democrats - Especially for all the airs they've put on about "privacy" and the executive branch since 1996.

I think for the most part it's going to be more circular, footballer politics. That is, "Whatever my side does is right, because they're on my side." This is as opposed to an honest and critical look at how the candidates stack up against just principles of governance.

Her nomination MAY have an effect on those who previously haven't voted and started paying attention because an amiable woman was nominated for the VP slot.

Attacks on her character based on what her daughter did or how many kids she has to juggle along with her job, especially if she handles the charges gracefully, would likely motivate this group to vote for her (or against those making the charges).

Her politics wouldn't even matter.

[Alan Wolk (The Toad Stool)]

To your point Cam, is this very insightful article from the Wall Street Journal (free for now) that even quotes Susan Estrich (remember her): http://is.gd/2b03

[Roger von Oech]

I'm totally disgusted by the media's hit job on Palin. I guess there's one thing I agree with Hillary on. She said the media is sexist, and she's right. Go Sarah!

[jallen5605@aol.com]

Go Obama, your record speaks for itself.

Religion/Church attendance
Sarah:
Evangelical Christian;
attends Juneau Christian Center when in Juneau and grew up attending
Wasilla Assembly of God
Obama:
Attended Trinity United Church of Christ for 20 years, a 'black
liberation theology' church formerly led by Rev. Jeremiah Wright and
governed according to the Black Value System

Executive Experience
Sarah:
Governor for 2 years; (80%) approval rating
Mayor for 10 years
Obama:
None

Foreign Relations experience
Sarah:
Governor of state that borders two foreign countries (Canada and
Russia)
Obama:
Chaired Senate subcommittee on Europe but never called it into
session;
once gave a speech to 200,000 screaming Germans

Military Affairs experience
Sarah:
Commander in Chief of Alaska National Guard;
Son is enlisted Infantryman in U.S. Army
Obama:
None

Reaction to spouse's political success
Sarah:
Quit 17-year BP oil job when BP became involved in natural gas
pipeline negotiations with wife's administration
Obama:
Promoted and given 160% pay raise by UofC hospitals within months of
husband's election to U.S. Senate;
Employer received $1,000,000.00 federal earmark, requested by
husband, after her promotion

Most Courageous Moment in Public Service
Sarah:
Resigned in protest from position of Ethics Commissioner of Alaska
Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in order to expose legal
violations and conflicts of interest of Alaska Republican leaders,
including the former state Attorney General and the State GOP
Chairman (who was also an Oil & Gas Commissioner), who was doing work
for the party on public time and supplying a lobbyist with a sensitive
e-mail.
Obama:
Gave an anti-Iraq war speech to a crowd of anti-Iraq war
demonstrators in Hyde Park in 2002

In Current Office Because...
Sarah"
Upset sitting Governor in GOP primary due to public support for her
efforts to clean up corrupt government establishment
Obama:
Republican opponent, who was leading in the polls, was forced to
leave race after unsealing of divorce records exposed a sex scandal

Theme:
Sarah:
Change and Clean Government
Obama:
Hope and Change;
'Bringing Change from Outside Washington'

What they've done to live that theme:
Sarah
Replaced entire Board of Agriculture and Conservation because of
conflict of interest;
Resigned from position of Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and
Gas Conservation Commission in order to expose corruption among
members of own party
Obama:
Selected 36-year incumbent Senator as running mate

Family Affairs
Sarah:
May have removed State Public Safety Commissioner as part of effort
to protect sister in messy divorce and child custody battle
Obama:
Often says, 'I am my brother's keeper';
Brother lives in a hut in Nairobion $12 per year

Union affiliation
Sarah:
Union member, married to Union member
Obama:
Endorsed by a union

Iraq and Troop Support
Sarah:
Formerly (pre-surge) critical of apparent lack of long-term strategy
forIraq;
Visited wounded U.S. soldiers in Germany;
visited AK National Guard soldiers deployed to Kuwait;
Son deploying to Iraq on 9/11/08 as Army infantryman
Obama:
Gave an anti-Iraq war speech to a crowd of anti-Iraq war
demonstrators;
almost visited wounded troops in Germany, but decided to go shopping
in Berlin instead

Bipartisan/'maverick' credentials
Sarah:
Married to a non-Republican;
Exposed corruption within own party;
Campaigned for Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell against corrupt GOP congressman
Don Young;
Called out Sen Ted Stevens (R-AK) to 'come clean' about financial
dealings that are under fed investigation
Obama:
Talks about bipartisanship

Legislative Record
Sarah:
Passed a landmark ethics reform bill;
Used veto to cut budgetary spending;
Prevented 'bridge to nowhere' that would have cost taxpayers $400
million dollars.
Obama:
Voted 'present' over 100 times as IL state senator

How they dealt with corrupt individuals in home city/state
Sarah:Exposed legal violations and conflicts of interest of Alaska
Republican leaders;
Campaigned against corrupt GOP Representative;
Ran against and defeated corrupt incumbent governor in GOP primary
Obama:
Launched political career in home of unrepentant domestic terrorist
Bill Ayers (and still refers to him as a part of 'mainstream
Democratic Chicago';
Purchased home with help of convicted felon Tony Rezko

Guns
Sarah:
Lifetime member of NRA and avid hunter;
video can be found on YouTube of Palin firing an M4 at a military
firing range
Obama:
Worked to pass legislation in Illinois that would prevent all
law-abiding citizens from owning firearms

Earmarks
Sarah:
Opposed 'Bridge to Nowhere' project;
Said Alaska should avoid relying on federal money for projects;
Campaigned against porker Don Young (R-AK) in 2008 primary
Obama:
Secured federal earmarks for wife's employer and for campaign
bundlers

Abortion
Sarah:
Pro life;
gave birth to 5th child knowing that he would have Down's syndrome
Obama:
Pro-choice;
ONLY IL state sen. to speak against the Born Alive Infant's
Protection Act, which required medical care to be given to live
infants who survived abortions

Energy
Sarah:
Believes energy independence is a matter of national security;
For drilling in ANWR, which is in her state
Obama:
Says Americans should 'get tune-ups' and 'check tire pressure';
Says 'we can't expect the world to be okay with' our use of heating
and air conditioning

Environment
Sarah:
Chair of Alaska Conservation Commission (2003-4);
Announced plans to create sub-cabinet group of advisors to address
climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in AK
Obama:
Talks about the environment a lot

Is this not something for Obama to be proud of.